Simulations of tropical cyclones and african easterly waves in high- and low-resolution climate models

Cette thèse se penche sur différents aspects des cyclones tropicaux tels que simulés par des modèles de circulation générale (MCG) et un modèle régional de climat (MRC), le modèle régional de climat canadien (MRCC5). D'abord, nous évaluons la capacité d'un ensemble de MCG, utilisé dans le cadre du 4e rapport du GIEC (Groupe d'experts Intergouvernemental sur l'Évolution du Climat), à capturer les principales zones de cyclogenèse au travers d'indices dérivés à partir des champs atmosphériques favorables à la formation des cyclones tropicaux. En comparant les événements de cyclogenèse observés avec les deux indices calculés à partir de réanalyses et d'un ensemble de MCG, nous vérifions que les indices arrivent à relativement bien représenter la distribution actuelle des cyclones tropicaux, autant dans les modèles que les réanalyses. En comparant des simulations couvrant la période 2080-2100 avec la période présente, l'indice jugé plus stable projette une légère augmentation du nombre des tempêtes dans le Pacifique Ouest. Le deuxième partie de la thèse est consacrée à évaluer la capacité du MRCC5 à reproduire la climatologie des cyclones tropicaux observée durant la période 1979-2006. Plus précisément, nous évaluons l'impact d'une augmentation de la résolution sur les caractéristiques physiques des cyclones ainsi que sur leur distribution géographique, de même que l'impact des conditions aux frontières, de la technique de « downscaling » dynamique utilisée et de la taille du domaine sur les cyclones simulés. Une telle évaluation est une étape cruciale à toute étude d'impact des changements climatiques sur les ouragans. La distribution des cyclones est consistante avec la distribution d'un indice de cyclogenèse, ce qui permet de mieux comprendre les changements observés dans les différentes simulations. Aussi, nous évaluons la capacité du modèle à reproduire la variabilité interannuelle observée durant cette période, et plus particulièrement l'impact de l'oscillation australe d'El Niño (El Niño Southern Oscillation ou ENSO) sur la cyclogenèse. Finalement, nous étudions les ondes d'Est africaines, systèmes précurseurs des ouragans dans l'Atlantique, tel que simulées par le MRCC5 de même que leur relation avec les cyclones tropicaux de l'Atlantique. Règle générale, le MRCC5 arrive à reproduire de façon réaliste l'activité observée durant la période 1979-2006. \ud ______________________________________________________________________________ \ud MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : cyclones tropicaux, indices de cyclogenèse, ondes d'Est africaines, modèle régional de climat, modèle de circulation général

Impact of reanalysis boundary conditions on downscaled Atlantic hurricane activity

Climate models are capable of producing features similar to tropical cyclones, but typically display strong biases for many of the storm physical characteristics due to their relatively coarse resolution compared to the size of the storms themselves. One strategy that has been adopted to circumvent this limitation is through the use of a hybrid downscaling technique, wherein a large set of synthetic tracks are created by seeding disturbances in the large-scale environment. Here, we evaluate the ability of this technique at reproducing many of the characteristics of the recent North Atlantic hurricane activity as well as its sensitivity to the choice of the reanalysis dataset used as boundary conditions. In particular, we show that the geographical and intensity distributions are well reproduced, but that the technique has difficulty capturing the large difference in activity observed between the most recent active and quiescent phase. Although the signal is somewhat reduced compared to observation, the technique also detects a significant decrease in the intensification rate of hurricanes near the coastal US during the active phase compared to the quiescent phase. Finally, the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on hurricane activity is generally well captured as well, but the technique fails to reproduce the increase in activity over the western part of the basin during Modoki El Niños.We would like to thank NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information for making the IBTrACS data available. JPB and LPC would like to acknowledge the financial support from the Ministerio de Economa y Competitividad (MINECO; Project GL2014-55764-R). LPC’s contract is co-financed by the MINECO under Juan de la Cierva Incorporacin postdoctoral fellowship number IJCI-2015-23367. MB would like to acknowledge financial support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada. Finally, we are grateful to Kerry Emanuel for providing the data as well as some useful feedback, and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

A statistical/dynamical model for North Atlantic seasonal hurricane prediction

Colorado State University (CSU) has been issuing seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984, with statistical modeling techniques primarily underpinning these outlooks. CSU has recently begun issuing statistical/dynamical forecasts, using the SEAS5 forecast system from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts to forecast the three predictors that currently comprise CSU's early August statistical forecast model. SEAS5 shows skill at forecasting all three of these July predictors from an initialization as early as 1 March. The SEAS5 model forecasts for the three parameters are then regressed against seasonal accumulated cyclone energy. The model has a cross‐validated correlation skill of r = 0.60 with accumulated cyclone energy for a 1 March initialization, improving to r = 0.67 for a 1 June initialization over the period from 1982–2019. The combination of the statistical/dynamical model with the currently existing statistical models shows improved skill over either model individually for the April, June, and July outlooks.Phil Klotzbach would like to acknowledge grants from the Severo Ochoa Mobility Program and the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation. Michael Bell was funded by the Office of Naval Research award N000141613033.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

On the Variability and Predictability of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Variability in tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin has been linked to a wide range of climate factors, yet the dominant factors driving this variability have yet to be identified. Using Poisson regressions and a track clustering method, the authors analyze and compare the climate influence on cyclone activity in this region. The authors show that local sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content as well as large-scale conditions in the northern Atlantic are the dominant influence in modulating eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The results also support previous findings suggesting that the influence of the Atlantic Ocean occurs through changes in dynamical conditions over the eastern Pacific. Using model selection algorithms, the authors then proceed to construct a statistical model of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity. The various model selection techniques used agree in selecting one predictor from the Atlantic (northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature) and one predictor from the Pacific (relative sea surface temperature) to represent the best possible model. Finally, we show that this simple model could have predicted the anomalously high level of activity observed in 2014

Rôle du TGF-β dans la modulation du microenvironnement tumoral leucémique

Le microenvironnement tumoral et les cellules et molécules signal (cytokines et chimiokines) qu’ils contiennent sont reconnus comme jouant un rôle prépondérant dans la progression des tumeurs. Il devient donc nécessaire d’étudier la relation entre les molécules signal, les cellules infiltrantes et les cellules tumorales. Le TGF-β est une puissante cytokine immunosuppressive et suppressive de la croissance cellulaire, dont le rôle dans la formation du microenvironnement tumoral leucémique est mal connu. Dans cette étude, nous avons étudié le modèle injectable de leucémie lymphoïde T EL4 (cellules tumorales produisant du TGF-β) de souche C57BL/6. Nous avons caractérisé l’infiltration de cellules myéloïdes et lymphoïdes au niveau des tumeurs par cytométrie en flux et par microscopie à fluorescence. L’analyse des cellules infiltrant les tumeurs EL4 nous a permis de montrer la forte présence de lymphocytes T et de cellules myéloïdes CD11b+. Nous avons donc poursuivi l’étude afin de mieux caractériser ces cellules. Nous avons montré que ces cellules se retrouvent en périphérie de la tumeur et en périphérie des vaisseaux sanguins de la tumeur. Ces cellules ont des phénotypes nous laissant croire qu’elles appartiennent à la famille des cellules dite myéloïdes suppressives. Ces cellules ont de forts niveaux de transcrits de VEGF et de MMP9 au niveau de la tumeur ainsi qu’au niveau systémique, mais ne semblent pas avoir une forte capacité inhibitrice in vitro. Afin de déterminer si la production tumorale de TGF-β influe le recrutement de ces cellules, nous avons transformé des cellules EL4 à l’aide d’un shRNA afin de diminuer la production de TGF-β (shRNA-TGF-β) et, comparé l’infiltration myéloïde et lymphoïde de tumeurs formées avec des cellules EL4 contrôles (shRNA-Luc). Une diminution de 50% dans les niveaux de transcrits de TGF-β n’affecte pas la croissance tumorale mais semble diminuer l’infiltration par des cellules myéloïdes. La présente étude nous a permis de mieux comprendre le modèle de leucémie EL4 et le rôle des populations cellulaires myéloïdes dans le microenvironnement tumoral leucémique. La diminution du TGF-β produit par les cellules tumorales réduit l’infiltration de ces populations myéloïdes dans la tumeur EL4. Le rôle précis de ces cellules est encore à déterminer. Ces résultats sont en accord avec le fait qu’une thérapie anti-TGF-β n’est pas suffisante pour contrer la progression tumorale, mais pourrait influer sur le résultat post-chimiothérapie et l’immunothérapie en altérant la composition du microenvironnement.The cells and signal molecules (cytokines and chemokines) making up the tumoral microenvironnement are known to play an essential role in tumor progression. It seems to be necessary to study the relationship between infiltrating cells, tumor cells and signal molecules. TGF-β is a potent immunosuppressive and growth suppressive cytokine whose role in the formation of the leukemia microenvironnement remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the injectable T lymphocyte leukemia EL4 model (tumor cells producing TGF-β) of C57BL/6 strain. We characterised the myeloid and lymphoid infiltration in EL4 tumors using flow cytometry and fluorescence microscopy. Our analysis of EL4 tumor infiltrating cells showed a high concentration of T lymphocytes and myeloid cells CD11b+. We have undertaken our study to better characterize these cells. We showed that these cells are present at the periphery of the tumor and are surrounding blood vessels in the tumor. These cells have phenotypes leading us to believe that they belong to the family of so-called myeloid suppressor cells. They have high levels of transcripts of VEGF and MMP9 in the tumor and the systemic level, but do not seem to have a strong inhibitory capacity in vitro. To determine whether the tumor production of TGF-β affects the recruitment of these cells, we transformed EL4 cells using a shRNA to reduce the production of TGF-β (TGF-β shRNA ) and compared the myeloid and lymphoid infiltration of tumors formed with EL4 cell controls ( shRNA-Luc ) . A 50% decrease in transcript levels of TGF-β does not affect tumor growth but appears to decrease infiltration by myeloid cells. This study allowed us to better understand the pattern of EL4 leukemia and the role of myeloid leukemia cell populations in the tumor microenvironment. The decrease of TGF-β produced by tumor cells reduces the infiltration of these myeloid populations within the EL4 tumor. The precise role of these cells still needs to be determined. These results are in agreement with the fact that anti-TGF-β therapy is not sufficient to counteract tumor progression, but may affect the post-chemotherapy and immunotherapy results by altering the composition of the microenvironment

Vertus et limites de la critique communautarienne du libéralisme

Ce mémoire traite de la critique communautarienne du libéralisme et se donne deux projets. D’abord, il s’agit de formuler une position de synthèse à partir des travaux des philosophes Charles Taylor, Michael Sandel, Alasdair MacIntyre et Michael Walzer. Cette synthèse s’articule autour de trois axes, soit ontologique, sociale et méthodologique. Le deuxième projet est d’évaluer cette position pour statuer sur son rapport au libéralisme, et, plus précisément, pour déterminer si elle est seulement une critique, une alternative, ou encore une variante à l’intérieur du libéralisme. Il est conclu que le communautarisme est réconciliable avec une certaine forme de libéralisme et que sa critique permet même de l’améliorer.In this essay about the communitarian critique of liberalism I seek to reach two goals. First, it is to form a synthesis from the works of philosophers Charles Taylor, Michael Sandel, Alasdair MacIntyre and Michael Walzer. This synthesis is articulated through three axes: ontologicial, social and methodological. Building on this, my second objective is to assess its relation to liberalism. More specifically, I seek to determine whether communitarianism is merely a critique, an alternative or a variant of liberalism. My conclusion is that communitarianism is reconciliable with a certain form of liberalism and that its critique allows to improve it

How Skillful are the Multiannual Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity?

The recent emergence of near-term climate prediction, wherein climate models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of the Earth system and integrated up to 10 years into the future, has prompted the development of three different multiannual forecasting techniques of North Atlantic hurricane frequency. Descriptions of these three different approaches, as well as their respective skill, are available in the peer-reviewed literature, but because these various studies are sufficiently different in their details (e.g., period covered, metric used to compute the skill, measure of hurricane activity), it is nearly impossible to compare them. Using the latest decadal reforecasts currently available, we present a direct comparison of these three multiannual forecasting techniques with a combination of simple statistical models, with the hope of offering a perspective on the current state-of-the-art research in this field and the skill level currently reached by these forecasts. Using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches, we show that these forecast systems have a significant level of skill and can improve on simple alternatives, such as climatological and persistence forecasts.The first author would like to thank Isadora Jimenez for providing the necessary material for Fig. 2. The first author would like to acknowledge the financial support from the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO; Project CGL2014- 55764-R), the Risk Prediction Initiative at BIOS (Grant RPI2.0-2013-CARON), and the EU [Seventh Framework Programme (FP7); Grant Agreement GA603521]. We additionally acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. LPC's contract is cofinanced by the MINECO under the Juan de la Cierva Incorporacion postdoctoral fellowship number IJCI-2015-23367. Finally, we thank the National Hurricane Center for making the HURDAT2 data available. All climate model data are available at https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/esgf-ceda/.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Reanalysis of climate influences on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity using cluster analysis

We analyze, using Poisson regressions, the main climate influences on North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The analysis is performed using not only various time series of basin‐wide storm counts but also various series of regional clusters, taking into account shortcomings of the hurricane database through estimates of missing storms. The analysis confirms that tropical cyclones forming in different regions of the Atlantic are susceptible to different climate influences. We also investigate the presence of trends in these various time series, both at the basin‐wide and cluster levels, and show that, even after accounting for possible missing storms, there remains an upward trend in the eastern part of the basin and a downward trend in the western part. Using model selection algorithms, we show that the best model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity for the recent past is constructed using Atlantic sea surface temperature and upper tropospheric temperature, while for the 1878–2015 period, the chosen covariates are Atlantic sea surface temperature and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We also note that the presence of these artificial trends can impact the selection of the best covariates. If the underlying series shows an upward trend, then the mean Atlantic sea surface temperature captures both interannual variability and the upward trend, artificial or not. The relative sea surface temperature is chosen instead for stationary counts. Finally, we show that the predictive capability of the statistical models investigated is low for U.S. landfalling hurricanes but can be considerably improved when forecasting combinations of clusters whose hurricanes are most likely to make landfall

Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models

We examine the influence of increased resolution on four long-standing biases using five different climate models developed within the PRIMAVERA project. The biases are the warm eastern tropical oceans, the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the warm Southern Ocean, and the cold North Atlantic. Atmosphere resolution increases from ∼100–200 to ∼25–50 km, and ocean resolution increases from (eddy-parametrized) to (eddy-present). For one model, ocean resolution also reaches ∘ (eddy-rich). The ensemble mean and individual fully coupled general circulation models and their atmosphere-only versions are compared with satellite observations and the ERA5 reanalysis over the period 1980–2014. The four studied biases appear in all the low-resolution coupled models to some extent, although the Southern Ocean warm bias is the least persistent across individual models. In the ensemble mean, increased resolution reduces the surface warm bias and the associated cloud cover and precipitation biases over the eastern tropical oceans, particularly over the tropical South Atlantic. Linked to this and to the improvement in the precipitation distribution over the western tropical Pacific, the double-ITCZ bias is also reduced with increased resolution. The Southern Ocean warm bias increases or remains unchanged at higher resolution, with small reductions in the regional cloud cover and net cloud radiative effect biases. The North Atlantic cold bias is also reduced at higher resolution, albeit at the expense of a new warm bias that emerges in the Labrador Sea related to excessive ocean deep mixing in the region, especially in the ORCA025 ocean model. Overall, the impact of increased resolution on the surface temperature biases is model-dependent in the coupled models. In the atmosphere-only models, increased resolution leads to very modest or no reduction in the studied biases. Thus, both the coupled and atmosphere-only models still show large biases in tropical precipitation and cloud cover, and in midlatitude zonal winds at higher resolutions, with little change in their global biases for temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and net cloud radiative effect. Our analysis finds no clear reductions in the studied biases due to the increase in atmosphere resolution up to 25–50 km, in ocean resolution up to 0.25∘, or in both. Our study thus adds to evidence that further improved model physics, tuning, and even finer resolutions might be necessary.This research has been supported by the Horizon2020 project PRIMAVERA (H2020 GA 641727) and IS-ENES3 (H2020 GA 824084). Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro acknowledges funding from the Spanish Science and Innovation Ministry (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación) via the STREAM project (PID2020-114746GB-I00) and from the ESA contract CMUG-CCI3-TECHPROP. Etienne Tourigny has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 748750 (SPFireSD project).Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 13 autors/es: Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Louis-Philippe Caron, Saskia Loosveldt Tomas, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Oliver Gutjahr, Marie-Pierre Moine, Dian Putrasahan, Christopher D. Roberts, Malcolm J. Roberts, Retish Senan, Laurent Terray, Etienne Tourigny, and Pier Luigi Vidale"Postprint (published version

Predicción climática decadal global con el modelo EC-EARTH: avanzando hacia una predicción operativa en tiempo real [Presentación]

Presentación realizada en el VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción "Memorial Antonio Mestre", celebrado en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018